A Major Slowdown Is Coming in China: How to Protect Your Supply Chain in Early 2026

This week’s update comes with an important warning for anyone trading with China. February 2026 will bring the Spring Festival holiday period, which will slow production and logistics across the country. If orders are not placed early, the disruption will run straight through your supply chain.

Kevin Ross has already cautioned clients to plan ahead. His guide “Surviving the 2026 Shutdown” sets out the risks and the steps importers need to take to stay ahead of the disruption. The slowdown will affect production, trucking capacity and export flows from 10 February to the middle of March. You can read the full guide here
https://centralstation.co.za/surviving-the-2026-shutdown/

At the same time, South African ports have confirmed a tariff increase of 7.57 percent for the new financial year. This is almost double the usual annual adjustment. It places more pressure on importers and exporters who are already dealing with rising costs and inconsistent port performance.

As we close off 2025, all of us at TSI Central Station want to thank you for your support and partnership through the year. We wish you and your families a safe festive season and a successful start to 2026. If you have not yet experienced the TSI difference, we would welcome a conversation in the new year.

South African Port Conditions This Week

Cape Town continues to battle strong winds that have taken several operational hours off the clock. This has slowed vessel movements and reduced overall productivity. More equipment capable of operating in higher winds is being brought online which is helping although weather remains the main disruptor.

Durban’s performance is still mixed. Equipment availability is the key issue. Upgrades to cranes, hauliers and harbour craft are under way but not yet at the level required. Any improvement here will directly benefit Gauteng importers and exporters.

Global container pricing has been relatively soft in recent weeks although some trades are now starting to edge higher again as carriers adjust capacity. Importers should continue to plan ahead.

Across the region, border flow slowed at a few crossings. Processing times increased slightly. Delays were not severe but did create extra risk for cross border operators.

Industry Focus: The Debate Over Port Tariff Hikes

The 7.57 percent port tariff increase has divided the industry. Some support the rise as a way to fund overdue investment. Others argue the increase outpaces inflation and adds more cost to already strained supply chains.

Cargo owners expected a more modest adjustment. Several marine service categories are seeing increases near 10 percent. These costs will filter through the economy and could weaken South Africa’s competitiveness in global markets.

Industry leaders agree on one point. Higher tariffs can only be justified if they bring better maintenance, more reliable equipment and consistent staffing. Right now performance does not match the scale of cost increases. If service levels do not improve the increase will only add more pressure to trade.

From a TSI Central Station point of view tight cost control and smart planning become even more important. We will continue to track port performance closely and adjust our logistics planning so our clients carry as little of this impact as possible.

Ports Report: South Africa’s Latest Performance Snapshot

In the last seven days ending 2 December 2025:

Durban
• Pier 1 averaged 2.9 days waiting time
• Pier 2 also 2.9 days
• Point 1 averaged 2 days

Cape Town
• CTCT recorded 4.5 days waiting

Port Elizabeth
• PECT recorded zero delays
• Coega recorded 6 days

National throughput improved with ports handling 75,462 TEUs, up 9 percent from the previous week. Cape Town lifted volumes sharply as it caught up on earlier delays despite losing more than 40 operational hours to wind.

Durban softened again due to equipment shortages. Rail uplift dropped which pushed more pressure onto the road network. Eastern Cape ports saw mixed performance with some weather related disruptions.

Air, Road and Regional Border Flow

Airfreight remained steady. Inbound volumes dipped slightly and outbound volumes increased. Totals remain well above both 2019 and 2024 levels. OR Tambo saw some operational strain linked to weather and infrastructure limitations.

Road traffic eased slightly through the regional corridors. Lebombo processed about 1,349 trucks per day. Most borders recorded moderate delays with a national median crossing time of 12.7 hours. Isolated congestion and weather related delays were reported at several posts.

Indirect costs linked to regional delays were estimated at about R630 million for the week.

Ocean Freight Trends: Rates Edge Higher

Global port throughput softened slightly although year on year performance remains stronger. The Drewry World Container Index rose to 1,927 dollars for a 40 foot container. Several Asia routes saw firmer pricing as carriers applied general rate increases. Rates into the US and Europe lifted as demand held steady.

The market remains volatile. Any return of more vessels to the Suez route could bring new capacity into the system which might trigger fresh price swings.

Global Air Cargo: Stronger Into Peak Season

Air cargo tonnage held steady across most regions. Spot rates continued to rise due to peak retail season demand in the US. Asia Pacific to Europe lanes saw increases of between 2 and 10 percent. The global average spot rate reached 2.93 dollars per kilogram.

Knowledge Corner: How to Prepare for the 2026 Shutdown

China’s annual shutdown is a major supply chain event. The slowdown affects factories, trucking, ports and carrier schedules. Lead times stretch, responses slow down and space becomes limited across all major routes. Production restarts gradually which often creates further congestion deep into March.

Here is what importers should focus on:

Why this matters
• Orders placed too late fall into the shutdown window
• Carriers cut space as factories rush to move cargo
• Inland transport slows which affects container availability
• Restart congestion delays cargo even after the holiday
• Any supply chain relying on steady flow will feel pressure

What to expect
• Longer supplier lead times
• Earlier booking cut offs
• Slower warehouse processing
• Schedule adjustments by carriers
• Pressure on alternative sourcing markets

What you should do now

1. Place orders early to avoid February delays

2. Secure booking space before year end

3. Build extra buffer into all supply plans

4. Confirm supplier shutdown and restart dates

5. Consider alternative sourcing or routing if timing is tight