SA Ports: Progress or Pain

🚢 South African Ports: Progress or Pain?

Big Takeaway:
Ports are showing signs of life, but the gains are inconsistent. Durban is still dragging, delays persist, and global headwinds (like China’s Golden Week and tariff uncertainty) are making every shipment a risk. The operators who plan routes, lock in terms, and buffer their supply chains will dominate in the months ahead.

Frontline Insights – What’s Happening, and What It Means for You

• Transnet’s Liebherr deal moves forward
  4 new ship-to-shore (STS) cranes and 48 RTGs are on order, backed by a 20-year service plan.
  What this means for you: Once fully commissioned, expect better reliability and fewer breakdowns. But don’t assume instant change — improvements will roll in gradually.

• Ports are better, but still flawed
  SA recorded a daily peak of ~18,689 TEUs, but global rankings still put us near the bottom. Efficiency gains remain patchy.
  What this means: If your supply chain tolerates variance, you might ride through. If not, you need contingency plans now.

• Global trade is softening
  UNCTAD forecasts just 0.5% growth in seaborne trade for 2025.
  What this means: Competition for volume will intensify. Ports or operators who are less efficient will be sidelined unless they modernise fast.

• Rail is opening, but execution is key
  11 private operators cleared to access national freight corridors.
  What this means: In some corridors, trucking costs may soften. But unless Transnet’s systems keep pace, you won’t feel benefits broadly.

• Logistics grid under pressure
  Energy issues, bottlenecks, port delays, and cost inflation are all combining.
  What this means: Any weak link in your chain — supplier, freight, or customs — can cascade delays downstream.

👉 Playbook: Right now, treat lead time as a variable, not a constant. Add 5 – 7-day buffer to every inbound shipment. Renegotiate your supplier contracts for flexibility on delivery windows.

Story of the Moment – Why AGOA Renewal Matters

President Ramaphosa is pushing hard for renewal of AGOA (African Growth and Opportunity Act). He warns that letting it lapse would cost jobs and damage key sectors.

• Why it matters: AGOA gives South Africa a competitive edge into the U.S. market. Losing it means exporters face steeper tariffs.

• Playbook for exporters:

  1. Audit your U.S.-bound product lines—see where exposure is highest.

  2. Price forward contracts with a 30% tariff buffer.

  3. Begin customer diversification — don’t let the U.S. be your only hope.

Ports Report – Week Ending 29 Sept 2025

Playbook: Book your transport collection slots earlier than usual. Hauliers are stretched, and missed slots will cost you.

Key Highlights from Across the Logistics Grid

1. Port operations: Throughput down 13% w/w. Cape Town +19%, Durban Pier 2 +14%, Ngqura –53%.

2. Air cargo: OR Tambo handled 7.38 million kg — up 12% vs 2024. Runway work delayed, so scheduling is tighter.

3. Road & borders: Lebombo truck flow –7%. Queues ~4.7 hrs. Groblersbrug still the worst — up to 3 days delays despite AEO clearance.

4. Global trade: Drewry WCI falls 6.4% to $1,913/FEU. SA’s throughput is weak compared to Chinese growth.

5. Air freight: Africa–Europe lanes up 10% y/y. The push for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is gaining ground.

Global Freight Rates – 25 Sept 2025

• Drewry WCI down 8% to $1,761/FEU (15th straight weekly drop)

• Shanghai → LA down 10%, Shanghai → Rotterdam down 9%

• Even with capacity cuts before Golden Week, rates remain under pressure

Playbook: Lock in mid-term freight contracts now while spot rates are weak. If you sit on the sideline, you’ll get exposed when things tighten.

Knowledge Corner – Why Getting Incoterms Right Pays Off

Incoterms set who pays, who carries risk, and when responsibility shifts. Mistakes here lead to hidden charges, disputes, and worst-case: shipment failure.

• Common terms: EXW, FOB, CIF, DAP

• Risks when misused: You could pay freight twice. Or get stuck with port charges you weren’t expecting.

Playbook: Always specify exactly which Incoterm and year (e.g. “CIF Durban, Incoterms 2020”). Run your landed cost models under two scenarios before signing deals.

Final Thought

In logistics, uncertainty is par for the course. Your advantage isn’t guessing right—it’s preparing smart.
If you want us to run a cost-risk audit for your shipments going into Q4, hit reply. We’ve got your back.