Logistics News 12 August 2025

On 7 August 2025, the deadline came and went without a trade deal between South Africa and the United States. As a result, the 30% U.S. tariff on South African exports is now in effect the highest rate in sub-Saharan Africa.

While the South African Reserve Bank forecasts only a modest impact on GDP and inflation, the reality on the ground is different for certain industries. Export sectors like wine, fruit, automotive components, and steel are already reporting cancelled orders and slower demand, with as many as 30,000 jobs at risk in the short term.

What the government is doing

In response, the South African government has:

• Approved a revised trade offer to the U.S., targeting specific sanitary and phytosanitary concerns raised during earlier talks.

• Established an Export Support Desk to serve as a direct point of contact for affected companies.

• Created funding programmes for localisation and export competitiveness, offering working capital and plant and equipment finance.

• Introduced a Block Exemption for Exporters, allowing competitors to collaborate to minimise the damage of tariffs.

These are positive steps, but they are short- to medium-term measures. The ultimate solution still lies in securing a sustainable trade agreement that removes or reduces the tariff burden.

Shipping changes add to the challenge

Adding to the pressure, Maersk will end its direct service to the U.S. East Coast in October 2025, leaving MSC as the only carrier maintaining a weekly direct route. While this keeps the corridor open, it also creates dependency on a single provider, which can mean higher freight rates, reduced scheduling flexibility, and increased risk if disruptions occur.

For exporters already facing higher landed costs from tariffs, any added logistical uncertainty compounds the challenge.

Why ongoing negotiations with the USA are critical

The U.S. is South Africa’s second-largest trading partner, and tariffs of this magnitude fundamentally shift the competitiveness of our exports in that market. Every month that passes without resolution risks:

• Permanent loss of market share as U.S. buyers switch to other suppliers.

• Long-term reputational damage to South African products in key sectors.

• Reduced investment in industries geared toward the U.S. market.

While diversification into Asia, the Middle East, and Africa is necessary, it cannot replace the strategic value of the U.S. market overnight. For South Africa’s exporters, a negotiated settlement remains the most effective way to protect jobs, stabilise demand, and keep trade flows resilient.

Adapting in the meantime

Until a deal is reached, exporters should:

• Reassess destination markets to spread risk.

• Build flexibility into logistics plans to adapt to changing carrier schedules.

• Take full advantage of government and industry support programmes.

• Review Incoterms to clarify tariff payment responsibilities.

Our role at TSI Central Station

At TSI, we monitor these developments in real time, helping our clients navigate changing tariffs, shifting trade lanes, and carrier schedules. Our goal is to ensure that, even in a turbulent market, your cargo keeps moving, costs are managed, and opportunities are found in new and existing markets.